Heat Pumps: The Future of Home Energy?

For most of my adult life, the boiler in the airing cupboard was just background noise — something that ran on gas, kept the radiators hot, and only got attention when it broke down. I suspect most people in the UK feel the same way. Heating is invisible until it isn't.

That changed for me when I started looking seriously at home energy. What started as mild curiosity about solar panels turned into a fairly deep rabbit hole on heat pumps — and I came out of it convinced that we're at an inflection point in how we heat our homes.

What exactly is a heat pump?

A heat pump doesn't generate heat by burning fuel. Instead, it moves heat from one place to another — typically extracting thermal energy from the outside air (even in cold temperatures) and concentrating it inside your home. The technology is the same as a fridge, just working in reverse.

The key metric is the Coefficient of Performance (COP): for every 1 unit of electricity consumed, a modern heat pump delivers 3–4 units of heat. That's 300–400% efficiency, compared to the 90% you'd get from the best condensing gas boiler.

Why now?

A few forces are converging:

Policy: The UK government has set 2035 as the target year to phase out new gas boiler installations. Similar timelines exist across Europe. This isn't a distant ambition — it's 9 years away.

Economics: Gas prices are volatile and structurally uncertain post-2022. Electricity, while currently more expensive per unit, is increasingly powered by renewables — and the marginal cost of renewable energy only falls over time.

Technology: Modern heat pumps work effectively down to -15°C or below. The UK's relatively mild winters (average winter temperatures rarely drop below -5°C in most of the country) are well within operating parameters.

The honest challenges

I'd be doing a disservice if I pretended it was all straightforward. There are real barriers:

• Upfront cost: A quality air source heat pump with installation runs £8,000–15,000. The UK government's Boiler Upgrade Scheme offers a £7,500 grant, which helps significantly, but it's still a meaningful investment.
• Home readiness: Heat pumps work best with well-insulated homes and larger radiators or underfloor heating. Draughty Victorian terraces need work first.
• Skills gap: There simply aren't enough trained heat pump engineers in the UK yet. The industry is racing to upskill.

What I think

I think heat pumps are coming regardless of whether the policy stays firm. The technology is proven, the economics are improving, and the direction of travel on energy pricing favours electrification.

If you own your home and are thinking about your next boiler, I'd encourage you to at least get a heat pump assessment done before defaulting to another gas installation. The Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) website can connect you with accredited installers.

We're at the beginning of a once-in-a-generation shift in how we heat our homes. That's not a bad thing — it's an opportunity.